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March 05, 2017

If the Affordable Care Act is repealed some NYS Congressional seats could flip or be impacted

In an article in the Daily Kos on February 27, 2017 they identified 51 Congressional districts, currently represented by Republicans, in the United States that could “flip” if the Affordable Care Act is repealed. Although the premise that the ACA repeal itself determines the election is probably an overstatement it can have an impact and it does create what the article describes as a “vulnerability” index. Under this vulnerability index you subtract the number of constituents in a Congressional district that stand to lose coverage if the ACA is repealed from the raw GOP victory total. The more negative the number the more “vulnerable” the House member is while a positive number indicates non vulnerable.

Of the 51 districts in the country eight (8) of them are in New York State. The only Republican congressional district NOT included was the 21st Congressional district represented by Elise Stefanik. The most vulnerable in the United States  was Congressman Donovan (11th CD) with a -106.828 index, #4 was Congressman Faso (19th CD) with a -75.385 index, #10 was Congresswoman Tenney (22nd CD) with a – 52.361, #17 was Congressman Reed (23rd CD) with a -37.437 index, # 23 was Congressman King (2nd CD) with a -22.824 index, # 31 was Congressman Katko (24th CD) with a -16.305 index, #37 was Congressman Collins (27th CD) with a -11.901 index and #41 was Congressman Zeldin (1st CD) with a -8.765 index.